The most important thing to know when trying to understand property price trends is how many people are buying versus selling. Highest prices are achieved when two or more chase the same property and fall when two sellers are chasing the same buyer.
Download my full property price summary for November 2014
My comments on Demand this month
“There are mixed messages this month on property demand. In the main, it looks like sales and the number of those registering to buy is less this year than last, but there are some reports which still show the market is pretty healthy when looked at over time. With most reports in the media suggesting prices are slowing though, this is helping to ‘cool’ the market, with buyers taking their time. Hopefully this will return us to some sort of ‘norm’ of a low growth, but positive property market over the next 12 months.”
Here's what the Inidices are saying about demand this month
Rightmove “Demand has been on the up in most locations so far this year, but agents in many parts of the country report a slowing in that pace with an initial post-summer pick-up failing to gain momentum. The time to sell index is up from 65.8 days to 67.8 days this month, indicating that sales are taking longer and buyers are in less of a rush to buy. (Oct 14)”
NAEA “House hunters are out in force as the number of people looking for a property for the month of September is at a ten year high. Member agents reported an average of 406 house hunters at each branch - the highest number recorded since October 2004, when an average of 511 buyers were reported. Sales agreed increased slightly in September, with agents reporting nine sales agreed in the month per branch, compared to eight in August. First time buyers are also continuing to gain ground, according to the report, with the group now accounting for just under a third of all sales per branch (30 per cent), an increase from 28 per cent in August – which was up eight per cent from the two months before. (Sept 2014)”
Hometrack “Pent-up demand has fed back into the market in the last 18 months. Our recent analysis shows that house prices have been driven by investor and more affluent, equity driven demand from those in managerial professions against a backdrop of low market liquidity. Greater participation in the market by more debt-reliant households is required to sustain demand and the momentum in house price growth. However, warnings from the Bank of England and others on the sustainability of house price growth have impacted market sentiment since May. More importantly, tougher affordability checks for residential mortgages with stress rates at up to 7% are impacting demand with many households unable or unwilling to move. The piecemeal introduction of maximum loan to income caps will certainly impact demand in the high value inner areas of the London market and this looks to play out further in the months ahead. (Oct 14)”
Agency Express “Month-on-month the number of UK wide residential properties achieving a ‘Sold’ status has dropped by -7.4%. Although we have experienced a robust property market throughout 2014, the Property Activity Index’s data shows that October 2014 saw a higher number of properties achieving a ‘Sold’ status, recording only a 0.9% drop. Across the rest of the UK the seasonal trend continues. Out of the twelve regions recorded by the Property Activity Index all recorded declines for properties ‘Sold’. The regions that recorded the smallest declines for ‘Properties Sold’ were East Anglia -0.80%; East Midlands -2.50%; South East 5.20%; South West -6.20% and London -7.40%. (Oct 14)”
Bank of England “The number of loan approvals for house purchase was 61,267 in September, compared to the average of 64,720 over the previous six months. (Sept 14)”
Severn Trent “The average number of daily transactions in October was down 8% year on year. It was also down 1.4% on the average number of daily transactions in September. This indicates a definite softening of the housing market in the Midlands. (Oct 14)”
Land Registry “In the months April 2014 to July 2014, sales volumes averaged 75,950 transactions per month. This is an increase from the same period a year earlier, when sales volumes averaged 64,317 per month. (Sept 14)”
Download my full property price summary for November 2014
With there being mixed messages about demand there also mixed messages about supply.
Here are my comments on supply this month
“With the economy appearing to be moving into more of ‘good news’ territory, jobs appearing to be more secure and businesses making decent profits again (including residential property ones), then sellers are happier to risk selling up and moving on. Of course for many, they can now do this as huge numbers are out of negative equity and can afford to sell, when in the past they would have struggled to get the numbers to work.”
Here's what the various indices are saying about supply of property
Rightmove “There are more sellers giving it a go with newly-marketed listings on the up, and it seems that they recognise there is a window to sell now. However, to sell their property more quickly they should make it the most attractive in terms of price and preferably presentation if they are serious about selling within weeks rather than months. (Oct 14)”
Home.co.uk“Supply is growing across the UK as vendors are being encouraged by rising prices. Last month, 10% more properties entered the market than in September 2013. The rise in supply in London is much more extreme: up 49% by the same measure. (Oct 14)”
NAEA “While the supply of housing increased slightly from last month, from 49 houses available in August to 51 in September, this figure is seasonally low for September. The last time that supply levels were lower for September was in 2002, when 43 houses were available per NAEA member branch. (Sept 14)”
Agency Express “Eleven regions recorded declines in new listings ‘For Sale’. The regions that recorded the smallest declines were Wales -2.60%; West Midlands -8.70% and the North East +8.90%. This month’s top performing region was the North East. The rise of 8.90% in new listings ‘For Sale’ not only bucked the seasonal trend, they recorded their record best October and their largest increase in new listings ‘For Sale’ for three months. (Oct 14)”
Download my full property price summary for November 2014
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