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Summary of property price and market indices
City/town property price tracking
Demand, supply and transactions
This report is to help give everyone – industry and consumers – a quick five-minute guide to what’s happening in the property market, according to the property indices, along with property expert Kate Faulkner’s comments.
The property market stats are a bit ‘wobbly’ this month – Rightmove, Nationwide and Halifax showing a small uptick month on month, Home.co.uk and e.surv showing small falls. So overall, despite the report headlines being quite upbeat, prices themselves haven’t really moved that much, consistently anyway, over the last few months.
What is good news from the reports, however, is the increase in properties coming to the market for sale and the fact that new buyer enquiries seem to be buoyant, too. The more buyers and sellers out and about, the more opportunity for transactions – the real driver of the property market and the economy – to rebound.
With the good news about inflation now just ‘below’ the 2% target, this could give the Bank of England some room to manoeuvre at the next meeting on November 7th and may be an extra Christmas present (there, I said the Xmas word!) for another one in December. However, don’t hold your breath on two cuts by the end of the year just yet, as some forecasters are saying inflation will rebound slightly.
The regional report suggests that Scotland and Northern Ireland are doing well this year. For Scotland, there does appear to be a good short-term uplift in prices (year on year) and long-term (back to 2005), with prices rising annually at 4% vs. 3% inflation and year-on-year prices at 6%, so performing better than the ‘norm.’
Northern Ireland is interesting, though, as performance year on year may look good, but in the long term, prices still lag behind inflation – as far back as 2005, so buyers are still getting a good ‘deal’ while for sellers, it will depend on when they bought the property.
Part of the reason for better price performance in Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland is that they tend to be more affordable than parts of England – and it’s in areas where affordability is easier that are tending to see improved rises.
Of course, it’s important to remember that some of the rises year on year are actually prices ‘recovering’ from the falls seen in the last 18 months.
For Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland we monitor:
Local expertise for each country though is essential when looking at how the property market is performing. This is especially the case in the likes of Scotland and Wales where areas are as diverse as the English Regions.
Summary from the indices of the Welsh housing market
“House prices in Wales also recorded strong growth, up +4.4%, compared to the previous year, with properties now costing an average of £224,119.”
Summary from the indices of the Northern Ireland housing market
“Northern Ireland continues to record the strongest property price growth of any nation or region in the UK, rising by +9.7% on an annual basis in September. The average price of a property in Northern Ireland is now £203,593.”
Summary from the indices of the Scottish housing market
“Scotland saw a more modest rise in house prices, where a typical property now costs £205,718, +2.1% more than the year before.”
e.surv
Gentle market recovery builds
“On an annual basis, Scotland’s average house price has risen steadily but modestly for six consecutive months and stood at more than £225,000 in July, 1.9% higher than a year ago.
“Eighteen local authorities experienced rising prices in the month. Prices in two local authorities – East Renfrewshire and West Lothian – hit new market highs. This is becoming something of a regular habit for West Lothian, as local prices have reached fresh peaks in three of the last four months.
“Several other authorities - Angus, Moray and Glasgow - are within touching distance of prices setting new record highs. Uniquely, Angus has reported monthly price increases for seven consecutive months.”
“At a local authority level, the market saw increases in 15 areas, and, with the onset of a new government, we expect market sentiment will further improve. The new government has already said it is supportive of the existing mortgage guarantee scheme which has been used to good effect in Scotland. Confidence will likely be further buoyed as the Bank of England begins to cut its base rate in the coming months.”
As the table shows below, most indices are reporting rises in most regions this month – with Zoopla showing the least regions ‘recovering’ – with the South West, East and South East seeing prices down year on year. As in our country analysis, bar London, which is a very individual market, it’s areas that tend to be more affordable that are seeing rises.
The top performing region, according to Home.co.uk, is the North East, typically England’s cheapest region, with a 6.7% rise recorded. Rightmove isn’t far behind, suggesting prices are up here by 5%, with the rest of the indices showing rises of around 3%.
The region struggling the most according to the indices seems to be the East – with a 0.9% fall according to Zoopla – while other indices show the South West to see the biggest fall (Rightmove). This is likely caused by areas where people need a mortgage more and have been hit harder than the likes of London, as I expect they have fewer cash buyers.
For regional performance by indices - download the full version of the October 2024 report here
At the city level, we have two main sources of data: Hometrack, which is around six weeks into the home buying and selling process, and the Land Registry data, which is anything from a few months to six months or more out of date.
How are city property prices performing year on year?
Of our 30 cities, we are seeing only seven that are still recording falls, according to the Land Registry, whereas a slightly more updated picture from Zoopla shows eight towns.
However, looking at property prices year on year doesn’t give us the right ‘view’ from a consumer perspective. What people really need to know is whether they are paying more or less for properties this year than a few years ago!
According to our stats (looking at Land Registry data):-
This is particularly important for those worried about losing the SDLT holiday in March next year – if they are buying in one of the 17 cities that haven’t seen prices recover yet, they are still likely to be getting a good deal, even paying the extra tax.
How are city property prices performing versus inflation over the long term?
Out of the 30 cities we track via the Land Registry, since 2005, property prices have only risen above the average annual 3.8% inflation rate in six cities/towns. These include:
Except for Milton Keynes and Edinburgh, where prices have risen at the same rate as inflation over time, the remaining towns and cities we track show that property prices, in many areas, have risen at less than inflation.
The following towns and cities price growth ‘on average’ are performing below inflation:
Topping the price growth charts according to Land Registry and Hometrack:-
Lowest performers are:
For individual cities/towns' performance - download the full version of the October 2024 report here
Although we won’t know until the budget, it does look like the SDLT holiday in England is coming to an end in March 2025. At the moment, the market looks reasonably buoyant stock and demand wise as the data from Chris Watkin and TwentyEA shows. Listings are currently at their highest for seven years, while net sales are the third highest, only beaten by the ‘pandemic years’, and well ahead of the norms we saw in 2018 and 2019.
The good news is it’s likely that transactions will improve if bank base rates result in lower mortgage rates in November/December and if the papers keep talking about the end of SDLT – even though it’s a maximum of £2,500.
Source: Chris Watkin and TwentyEA
This latest data shows that both listings and sales are doing extremely well versus the years prior to the pandemic, matching the more ‘normal’ year of 2018.
Here’s a summary of the latest supply and demand data from each of the indices:
Zoopla
More supply will keep price inflation in check
“Rising sales volumes are being supported by more homes available for sale, up 12% on this time last year. Many of these homes are new listings from home owners looking to sell and buy another home. However, not all homes are ‘brand new’ to the market.
“A fifth of homes currently for sale were previously on the market over the last 2 years. While market conditions are improving, setting the right price is important to attract buyers. The same applies to the fifth of homes for sale that have been on the market for more than 6 months, still unsold. This explains why a similar proportion have had their asking price cut by 5% or more to attract buyers. These trends show buyers remain price-sensitive as overall choice improves. Sellers need to price sensibly to secure a sale.”
Rightmove
“The number of sales being agreed between buyers and sellers is up by 27% compared to this time in 2023, a strong rebound compared with last year’s more subdued market. In positive signs for future sales, the number of potential buyers contacting agents is also up by 15% compared with this time last year. Buyer choice has been improving, and the average number of available homes for sale per estate agency branch is at its highest since 2014, at 33 homes. This has come from a 14% increase in new properties coming to the market for sale compared with last year, but there still isn’t a glut of homes for sale, as this figure is only up by 3% when compared with the more normal pre-pandemic 2019 market.
“Despite these strong figures, there are signs that the market is still cautious and price-sensitive. The average property is still taking 60 days to find a buyer, which is three days longer than at this time last year even with better market conditions. This suggests that value-conscious buyers are taking their time to find the right home at the right price, leading to a two-speed market. Attractive homes priced accurately are likely to be met with interest from buyers quickly, while overpriced or poorly presented homes may languish on the side lines.”
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