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Summary of property price and market indices
City/town property price tracking
Demand, supply and transactions
This report is to help give everyone – industry and consumers – a quick five-minute guide to what’s happening in the property market, according to the property indices, along with property expert Kate Faulkner’s comments.
Kate’s Commentary
Probably the best chart to explain where the property market is currently – isn’t one about property prices, but this one from Zoopla:
Source: Zoopla
On top of small price rises ‘on average’ across the country, all the key metrics for a healthy property market show an upward trend: more buyers, more sales agreed, more supply coming onto the market, and therefore more properties for agents to sell. This is the ideal ‘virtuous circle’ that seriously helps drive the property market forward.
And, off the back of these figures, we will likely see a great start to 2025. The question is, though, whether this will be sustainable. Although probably not what everyone wants to be reminded of, Doug Shepard from Home.co.uk wisely warns:
“Without a significant cut in the Bank of England base rate, 2025 could get very ugly for significant numbers of mortgagees and landlords alike.”
Landlords struggling due to increased costs (especially with a mortgage) and mortgage holders realising that rates are not coming down as quickly as hoped, could get caught. However, it’s important to remember some excellent research from Savills which showed that although tight, due to wage rises over the last few years, more people than expected could afford their home. It’s also worth noting that the ‘collapse’ of first-time buyers hasn’t happened – as they were being assessed at 5-7% rates, many can still cope with the higher rates and are keen to buy to move away from the rental sector.
Overall, 2024 has been a far better year than previously expected and will hopefully mean we kick off 2025 if further confidence can be built into the market.
The data for each country is quite stark and doesn’t seem to be differing that much over time. Average annual price increases suggest that property prices – bar Northern Ireland, are keeping up or at least matching property price inflation (+3.6% for England, +3% for Wales and +4% for Scotland).
This is a far cry from the heady days of vast annual price increases 2000-2005 where we saw the different countries’ property prices increase by double digits:
As we head into 2025, the huge growth we saw 20 years ago, which drove the outdated property statistic: “property prices double every 10 years”, just isn’t happening anymore. We are lucky to see a few percent up year on year, even taking into account the pandemic ‘boom’.
Overall, with wages continuing to rise higher than house prices, this is great at helping properties to become more affordable over time.
Property prices by country
Local expertise for each country though is essential when looking at how the property market is performing. This is especially the case in the likes of Scotland and Wales where areas are as diverse as the English Regions.
Northern Ireland housing market
Halifax
“Northern Ireland continues to record the strongest property price growth of any nation or region in the UK, rising by +6.8% on an annual basis in November. Properties in Northern Ireland now cost an average of £203,131.”
Scottish housing market
Halifax
“Once again Scotland saw a more modest rise in house prices compared to the rest of the UK, property here now costs £208,957, +2.8% more than the year before.”
e.surv
Scotland maintains upward momentum
“Our data shows this month that average house prices in September grew by a modest £400 (0.2%) compared with August. The increase took average prices above £226,600 for the first time, meaning that Scotland’s housing market hit a new peak for the fifth time this year.
“Notwithstanding the improving backdrop of the cost of living, the Scottish market appears subdued in September, with fourteen local authority areas reporting rising prices in the month whilst eighteen saw price falls.
“This is a limited and bumpy recovery to date, with prices up by only 2-3% on a year-on-year basis in recent months. The data does not yet reflect any impacts on buyer and seller confidence from the budget, which will become evident over the coming months and it will be interesting to see if mortgage pricing continues to harden as swap rates have risen.
“The Bank of England Base Rate cut was helpful for affordability and will doubtless ease some home owners’ payments but it is unlikely to provide a significant boost to home buyers.”
Mostly the indices agree that we are seeing pretty all regions move into positive territory for house prices. What is apparent is that in the North East and West we see the biggest spread of rises versus other regions:
This could be a different mix of recorded properties or issues with the areas/types of properties the indices are tracking. In these regions, you tend to see a much bigger range of highs and lows for property prices than other regions so that it could be that’s why there is such a big differential.
However, the key take away is how important reporting individual property data for the North and not relying on ‘averages’, which can severely mislead buyers, sellers, and investors.
For regional performance by indices - download the full version of the December 2024 report here
At the city level, we have two main sources of data: Hometrack, which is around six weeks into the home buying and selling process, and the Land Registry data, which is anything from a few months to six months or more out of date.
How are city property prices performing year on year?
Of our 30 cities, only nine are still recording falls, according to the Land Registry, whereas a slightly more updated picture from Zoopla shows only one town is showing a decline in property prices.
How are city property prices performing versus inflation over the long term?
Out of the 30 cities we track via the Land Registry, since 2005, property prices have only risen above the average annual 3.8% inflation rate in seven cities/towns. These include:
Milton Keynes is the only town where property prices have risen at the same rate as the 3.8% average annual inflation, whilst the remaining towns and cities we track show that property prices, in many areas, have risen at less than inflation. These include:
Topping the price growth charts according to Land Registry and Hometrack:-
Lowest performers are:
Basically, there are three trends with property prices at a city level:-
In other words, my mantra of ‘prices are always going up, down, and staying the same’ remains true, and that’s why individual commentary on property prices is much needed, whether provided by agents or surveyors. This information also has to be put into context – what does it mean for the buyer, seller, or investor? How will this information help them to make better property decisions?
What an incredible set of figures we are seeing from TwentyEA! Great listings and great net sales, some of the best over the last eight years. For those who predicted ‘Armageddon’ not so long back in the property market, clearly things have changed and are likely to have changed permanently now based on the fact the property market did not collapse over the last few years, despite the rapid rise in mortgage rates.
Source: Chris Watkin and TwentyEA
Here’s a summary of the latest supply and demand data from each of the indices:
Rightmove
“The number of sales being agreed continues to track positively against the quieter market of this time last year and is now 26% ahead of the same period in 2023. Meanwhile, the number of new sellers coming to market is 6% ahead of the same period a year ago. Rightmove’s real-time data can identify the immediate impact of external events on home-moving activity. The latest snapshot shows that a drop in the number of buyers contacting estate agents about homes for sale after the Autumn Budget has now been replaced by an uptick in buyer demand in response to the second Bank Rate cut. To put these trends into figures, in early October, before the Budget, buyer demand was 23% ahead of the same period in 2023. This figure dropped to +18% following the Budget but has now ticked back up to +23% following the Bank Rate cut. However, we do still expect the usual seasonal slow-down in home-moving activity as we get closer to Christmas.”
Halifax
“Latest figures continue to show improving levels of demand for mortgages, as an easing in mortgage rates boost buyer confidence. However, despite these positive trends, many potential buyers and movers still face significant affordability challenges and buyer confidence may be tested against a changeable economic backdrop.”
Zoopla
“Sellers (and buyers) returned to the market over 2024 building a healthy stock of homes for sale, which has supported sales volumes. The number of new sales being agreed is ending the year strongly, as serious buyers look to lock in sales in order to beat the return of higher stamp duty rates from April 2025. Sales agreed are 19% higher than this time last year, with buyer demand 25% higher.”
Propertymark
“The average number of new prospective buyers registered per member branch saw an uplift in September 2024 to 96 per member branch, representing a two-year high.
“New supply, as measured by new sales instructions, nudges slightly downward compared to the previous month. On average, there are now around 13 homes placed for sale per member branch in September 2024.
“Stock levels reflect the average number of properties available for sale at each member branch. In September 2024, stock levels dip marginally with an average of 45 properties for sale at each member branch.”
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